臺灣的時期總生育率（total fertility rate）於2011年已降至1.06，僅及人口替換水準的一半。事實上，除了實質生育率下降外，延後生育也是造成生育率如此低的重要因素，文獻稱為步調效果（tempo effect）。然而婦女生育年齡有限，生育不可能無限延宕，當生育不再延後，時期生育率就會回升。為了去除生育延後對時期生育率的影響，Bongaarts and Feeney（1998）提出校正方法，他們僅考慮平均生育年齡的改變，忽略生育年齡變異數的效果；Kohler and Philipov（2001）納入變異數的變動以補足其缺失，目的均止於步調去除後的生育水準。本文乃進一步使用臺灣婦女的生育資料，由模擬方式分別估計年輪平均生育年齡改變與年輪生育年齡分配型態改變各自對時期總生育率的影響。首先設定各年輪完成生育率均維持觀察到的量，生育年齡分佈則維持「比較基準年輪」之型態，比較歷年時期總生育率的模擬值與觀察值之差異，得出年輪生育率分佈改變的總效果。再設定年輪的平均生育年齡為觀察的平均年齡，分配型態同於「比較基準年輪」，其與第一個模擬之時期總生育率相較後，即為一般所稱的步調效果；其與歷年觀察的總生育率之差異，則為分配型態改變的效果。藉此釐清年輪的平均生育年齡改變與生育年齡分配型態改變各自對時期總生育率的效果，用以補足過去文獻的缺失，乃具有人口學應用及學術參考價值。

The total fertility rate in Taiwan has declined since 1951, reaching half of the replacement level in 2011. The secular decline is obviously real, but a ＂tempo effect＂ has also worked to bring it down. Since fertility cannot shift indefinitely to later ages of childbearing, the total fertility rate can be expected to rise once the shift has become saturated. Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) proposed a model to correct this terminating effect of shifting age pattern on total fertility, but it appears to address only the shifting mean age of childbearing. The model neglected the effect of shifting variance of the age distribution on total fertility rate. To redress the problem, Kohler and Philipov (2001) developed a way to assess the effect of removing variance on total fertility rate. The remedy appears to focus on the outcome of the tempo effect, but pays little attention to the shifts in the age pattern of fertility itself. This study employs a simulation approach to capture both the effects of shifting mean age and variance of the age distribution on total fertility rate simultaneously. We first compute cohort completed fertility rate based on the observed age-specific fertility rates. We then adjust the age pattern of cohort fertility assuming a certain age pattern, and simulate the total fertility rates accordingly. The differences between the simulated total fertility rates and the actual total fertility rates over time are then considered as the results of shifting age pattern. We further adjust the cohort fertility to the averaged mean ages of childbearing while keeping the age pattern constant; the comparison between this new simulation and the earlier one amounts to the well-documented tempo effect.

近年來全球留學生的大量增加，反映出全球高等教育市場的擴張與日趨多元的教育選項。臺灣政府近十年來在推動高等教育國際化發展下，積極招募外籍學生來臺求學，在臺外籍生人數也快速成長。儘管Kight與de Wit所建立的概念性架構有助於我們理解留學生選擇跨界學習背後的決策理據（rationales），但實證上仍須檢視這些理據對留學生進行相關決定時彼此間的相對重要性，以及影響其相對重要性的主要因子。推拉模型中對於遷移決策者透過搜尋最佳遷移選項以追求最大效益的微觀假設，也亟待被進一步地驗證。本文以全臺外籍生調查資料及在七所大學舉行之外籍生焦點團體訪談資料為據，分析外籍生來臺求學之主要動機，與影響其選擇留學目的國與就讀學校之因素。結果顯示，外籍生選擇來臺求學的決策多立基於學術文化及經濟性理據。同時，決策理據之間呈現出高度的交錯性，彼此相互影響。外籍生在選擇求學目的國與就讀學校的考量上，會因來源國別、語言能力、在臺期間之經濟來源與就學階段的不同而產生差異。留學目的地在國際高等教育市場的能見度、移入國與原生國的教育資源與政策，國際關係和區域化發展等因素，也會影響留學生的學習選擇。這些發現，凸顯了遷移決策背後的條件脈絡對決策形成的影響力，也形塑了留學決策當中有限理性的特質。研究結果也指出，決定出國留學，和選擇留學目的國與就讀學校的各項決策之間不必然呈現垂直線性的關係，而多呈現迴遞互動式的關係。最後，本文就研究結果對臺灣現行外籍生招募政策提出建議。

The rapid increase in international students worldwide in recent years has reflected the fast expansion of the global higher education market and the gradual diversification of educational options. In the recent decade, the Taiwanese government has launched policies to internationalize higher education and to actively attract foreign students to study in Taiwan, and the number of foreign students in Taiwan has been rapidly rising. Although the conceptual framework proposed by Knight and de Wit is helpful in understanding the rationales of international students' transnational education choices, substantial empirical evidence is needed to examine the relative significance of these rationales and the factors generating the differentiation. There also remains to be tested the micro-level hypothesis of the push-pull model conceptualizing a migration decision as the result of a rational choice seeking the best option with the maximum utility. This paper analyzes foreign students' motives to study in Taiwan and the factors shaping their destination choices with a national foreign student survey data and focus-group interviews with foreign students at seven Taiwanese universities. The results show that foreign students' study choices were based mainly on academic, cultural and economic rationales. The weighting of rationales varied by students' countries of origin, language skills, economic sources, and levels of study. The visibility of the study countries and institutions on the global market of higher education, education resources and policies of sending and receiving countries, international relations and regionalization all take part in shaping the study choices of student migrants. These findings highlight the contextualization of study choices of international students and the characteristic of bounded rationality in migration decision making. The study further discovers that the decision to study abroad and the choices of destination country and institution are not necessarily tied in a vertical and lineal relation but are often coordinated in a recursive fashion. It lastly provides suggestions to Taiwan's current foreign student recruitment policy.

Objective: Because of the insufficiencies of the current theoretical and empirical endeavors for explaining the systematic relationship between demographic transition and epidemiologic transition, this study is an attempt to theorize and empirically test a demographic transition thesis for explaining favorable conditions for population health and subsequent epidemiologic transition outcomes in less developed countries. Methods: OLS regression and cross-tabulation methods were used to conduct a cross-national analysis of all available data from less developed countries. Findings: Demographic transition, as measured by global fertility and cultural transition, exerts robust positive effects on the index of favorable conditions for population health and subsequent epidemiologic transition outcomes regarding the communicable- to non-communicable diseases transition and communicable diseases- to- injuries transition. Conclusions: Theorizing and testing a demographic transition thesis of epidemiologic transition contributed to theory development and interdisciplinary research for bridging demography and epidemiology.Theory, research, policy implications and suggestions for future research were discussed.

目的：有鑒於目前理論與經驗研究在探討人口轉型與疾病轉型系統性相關聯的不足，本研究以人口轉型理論提出人口轉型所帶來的人口健康有利條件如何在理論上與研究上解釋疾病轉型。方法：運用OLS迴歸分析與交叉表列方法，針對開發中國家可得資料進行跨國資料分析。發現：以全球生育與文化轉型所量度的人口轉型不僅影響人口健康有利條件的發生，二者並同時帶動疾病轉型有系統性的循序進展，從傳染性疾病轉型為非傳染性疾病，以及從傳染性疾病轉型為傷害為主的死亡成因。結論：本研究有助於理論發展與跨學科研究連結人口學與流行病學，結論並討論理論、研究，與政策上的涵義及對未來研究的具體建議。

本研究利用衛生福利部所提供的「死因資料」，以事故傷害為例，就其影響潛在生命年數及社會經濟損失長期趨勢進行分析探討。除利用Lee-Carter模式探討1985-2009年事故傷害死亡率變化及預測未來趨勢外，並利用該模式求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以非線性模式配適，並預測未來數年各年齡層事故傷害死亡率。另，針對事故傷害影響推算各年預期生命年數損失，以人力資本法算出其在各年所造成的工作年數社會經濟損失，最後利用時間序列ARIMA模式探討並預測事故傷害經濟損失變動趨勢。研究結果發現自1985－2009年，25年來事故傷害死亡率呈現上升再下降趨勢且在1989年達最高，每10萬人口就有70.04人死於事故傷害，若排除1999年因921大地震及2009年的莫拉克風災年份，在1989年後呈下降趨勢，另Lee-Carter模式所求得之各年死亡率高低趨勢以時間序列及非線性模式預測2010及2011年之事故傷害死亡率均得到良好的配適。就社會經濟損失方面，以2000年臺灣地區年中人口數為基準，在事故傷害方面所造成的每千人口潛在生命年數損失於1989年、1999年及2009年分別為31.13、21.44及10.06年；每千人口潛在工作年數損失為29.56、17.55及7.34年。另外，事故傷害死亡的社會經濟損失經2009年「消費者物價指數」（Consumer Price Index, 簡稱CPI）調整後，以1993年為最高490.37億元，而1999年經濟損失為410.15億元，在1999年後呈下降趨勢且在2009年經濟損失為165.79億元，25年來事故傷害造成的經濟損失減少37.52%。另外，以時間序列模式進行預測，事故傷害其未來3年的每千人口生命年數損失分別為8.86年、8.05年及7.23年；每千人口工作年數損失則為6.32年、5.52年及4.72年；經濟損失分別為147.55億元、127.89億元與108.23億元。

Accidents are always the most important problem related to the safety of people. In this study, we attempt to explore the trend of the effects of accidents in terms of years of potential life lost and economic loss in the past 25 years. The Lee-Carter Model is used for exploring the trend of death rate. The time-varying mortality index from the Lee-Carter model is fitted by a time series model and nonlinear model to predict future accident mortality rate. The years of potential life lost is calculated based on information about life expectancy, and the Human Capital Method is used to figure out the economic loss caused by accidents. Finally, a time series ARIMA model is applied to predict the economic loss caused by accidents. The results show that accident mortality rate has trended upward, then downward in the past 25 years; it peaked at 70.04 deaths per 100,000 population in 1989, then declined after 1989 (1999 and 2009 are excluded due to the extraordinary events of the 921 earthquake and Morak typhoon). In addition, a time series model and nonlinear model are used for fitting a time-varying mortality index k(t), providing good results for predicting accident mortality rates from 2010 to 2011. Using the population of Taiwan in 2000 as a standard, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by accidents were 31.13, 21.44, and 10.06 in 1989, 1999, and 2009 respectively; the years of working life lost per 1,000 population were 29.56, 17.55, and 7.34 in those same years. The economic loss caused by accidents after adjusting for 2009 CPI peaked at 490.37 billion NT dollars in 1993, then began falling after 1999's 410.15 billion NT dollars, reaching 165.79 billion NT dollars in 2009. From 1985 to 2009, the economic losses caused by accidents declined 37.52%. In addition, the predictions of time series models show that, due to accidents, the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population were 8.86, 8.05, and 7.23; the working life years lost per 1,000 were 6.32, 5.52, and 4.72; and the economic losses were 147.55, 127.89, and 108.23 billion NT dollars from 2010 to 2012 respectively.